To close out August, here are some political opinions, predictions and rumors:

If you want Tucson to become a progressive city that does things right, the Sept. 11 primary election could be the first tiny step in a very long journey.

At least two of the seven members of the mayor and council will be new. We could have four, but don’t bet on it. Republican Mayor Bob Walkup and Democratic Ward 4 Councilwoman Shirley Scott will be re-elected easily Nov. 6.

Democratic Councilman José Ibarra from Ward 1 on the west side and Carol West, a Democrat turned Independent from Ward 2 on the northeast side, aren’t running again.

In Ward 1, newcomers Regina Romero, a former county employee who also worked for Councilwoman Karin Uhlich, and Ken Green, a minister, neighborhood leader and former Veterans Administration Hospital employee, are vying for the Democratic nomination.

Both know less about city government than Ibarra, but they’ll work harder and play nicer than he has.

Romero, who has the backing of U.S. Rep Raúl Grijalva (her husband’s employer) and many other Democratic office holders and party workers, will win. The daughter of a former Yuma County farmworker, Romero has a communications degree from the University of Arizona.

No Republican is running in the ward, but the Green Party may nominate a candidate. Romero will easily win the general election.

The Ward 2 Democratic primary pits Rodney Glassman against Fourth Avenue art dealer Robert Reus.

Glassman, 29, holds UA master’s degrees in business administration and public administration, plus a doctorate in arid lands resource science.

He is also completing work on a UA law degree and has run his family’s ice rink, worked as an aide to Grijalva and launched a foundation to fund local youth and arts projects.

Glassman raised about $45,000, the maximum allowed for his campaign, but took no more than $20 from anyone. No city candidate has ever qualified for matching funds that way.

He has followed the path Gabrielle Giffords took to win the District 8 congressional seat last year by nailing down early support from hundreds of business people, politicians and charity activists.

Reus said he helped convert city government in Fayetteville, Ark., from a council-manager form like Tucson’s to a strong mayor form like New York and Chicago and wants to do the same thing here.

He probably couldn’t do it here. Voters have defeated that idea in the past.

They also might not want Walkup, who prefers being loved instead of making controversial decisions, to run day-to-day city affairs. City Manager Mike Hein has had the guts say no to some bureaucrats and push out some of the others he inherited.

Glassman will win the primary and face Lori Oien, a native Tucsonan, neighborhood activist and volunteer for pro-law enforcement organizations.

This will be the most heated of November’s candidate races.

In Ward 4, Scott, a three-term council member who’s gained a national reputation in city government circles, is unopposed in her primary.

She’ll face Republican newcomer Daniel Spahr in the general election.

Walkup actually won a third term when he decided a couple of years ago to run again. Despite their big registration edge, Democrats couldn’t find anyone to oppose him.

Democratic write-in candidate Michael Toney will fall far short of being nominated next month. The Greens have nominated David Croteau.

Looking ahead to the 2008 county elections, some Republicans say they may have opponents for District 1 Supervisor Ann Day in her GOP primary and Democrat Sharon Bronson in the District 3 general.

(Opposition for incumbent supervisors? What a novel idea!)

Finally, Assistant Attorney General Paul Eckerstrom, a former county Democratic chairman, says he may challenge County Attorney Barbara LaWall in next year’s primary.