There are lessons to be learned from the current slowdown in the residential home building market. They’re lessons that will make the industry, better and stronger when the industry turns around. And it will turnaround, says John Strobeck, owner of Bright Future Consultants.

"I am generally a very positive person," says the man whose firm tracks the local homebuilding industry. "I believe there are ways for us all to get through the current market. It will be a challenge, but we will be stronger on the other side."

Obviously more buyers would help but Strobeck says buyers aren’t able to get into many of the homes offered here.

"All of us in the industry need to explore ways to improve the buyer profile in the Tucson area to improve the volume in order to sell more homes and to have buyers that will reduce the inventory," he said. "Buyers are the key and price is the key to gaining more buyers."

Declining home prices are creating possibilities for buyers.

Both new and resale homes have seen price decreases, Strobeck says. The average price home price in October was $268,992, down $18,000 compared to the same month in 2006. October was the third consecutive month of a declining average compared to the same month a year ago.

The median price last month was $229,278, down $25,000 from one year ago.

"Interestingly, there were 14 new construction homes closed with a price under $150,000 that were not self-help houses," Strobeck said in his monthly letter. "Usually there have been no homes closed under $150,000 that were not self-help houses."

Continuing its downward slide, only 275 single family residence permits were issued for the region in October. The last time the volume was that low was 15 years ago, in 1992. So far this year, 4,612 permits have been issued.

Pulte Homes got 41 permits, KB Home 39, Meritage Homes 25, K. Hovnanian Great Western Homes 17, D. R. Horton Homes 15 and A. F. Sterling 10.

There were 508 new construction home closings last month, down from 695 in October 2006. Strobeck says the current volume indicates there will be 6,500 new home closings when the year is finished, down from 8,149 in 2006.

The top five volume closing subdivisions in the region were:

ân¶ 43 in Pulte Homes’ Red Rock Village near Red Rock

ân¶ 23 in KB Home’s Rancho Valencia on the southeast side

ân¶ 23 in KB Home’s Sonoran Ranch on the southwest side

ân¶ 22 in Pulte Homes’ Sierra Morado on the southeast side

ân¶ 19 in D.R. Horton’s Tres Pueblos north of Tucson International Airport

Strobeck reported there were 919 closings on resale homes in October, down from 1,357 closed in October 2006. He says the number is on track to total 15,000 this year.

"As with going through any difficulty, you learn things from going through bad times," Strobeck said. "It is also a time to try some things that are different and to utilize the situation to gain an advantage when the times change back to being positive."

This may result in a retooling of current plans and a move toward attached product Strobeck said.

"This move will result in higher volumes and will keep the sub contractors busy and as happy as possible in this down market."