Despite the perception of the current real estate market, a decade into the future, people will look back and kick themselves for not buying a home this year.

So says Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of the National Association of Realtors, speaking at the Tucson Association of Realtors’ 2008 Forecast seminar Jan. 9 at the Sheraton Tucson Hotel and Suites.

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"This is a great market to buy in and a great time to buy," Yun said. "There seems to be an irrational pessimistic outlook on the market fed by negative stories from the media."

The audience of about 325 real estate agents, brokers, developers and builders gave a loud cheer and applause.

"It is a fact that (2007) is the first time home appreciation was negative since the Great Depression," he said. "But considering in Tucson over this boom we saw 50 percent appreciation, then no growth in 2006 and what we figure to be about 2 percent depreciation of values in 2007 – it is like taking 50 steps forward and two steps back for most homeowners. Those who bought in the last year or two didn’t fare as well."

Yun said there was no way that growth of that size was going to be sustainable for longer than it did.

"We need to get rid of the excess," he said. "But when reports come out that the fed might cut rates in January, and then more in March and maybe in May too, people are going to wait and wait to buy. We are fulfilling our own prophesy."

Yun called 2008 the year of opportunity and said to make it work, Realtors need to begin battling the mentality and get the message out there that it is an even better time to buy than during the boom.

"Over the last few years, mortgage rates have gone down and they are at historic lows," he said. "With this slight decrease in housing prices, it is the best time for buyers to buy."

Realtors just have to get back to work, said Tucson Association of Realtors President Tom Sloyan.

"We are not in a down year," he said. "We are in a normal year and just have to get back to work. The free ride is over. Have you contacted 10 of your previous clients this month and asked them to consider buying or selling real estate? It’s time to get back to work."

The majority of speakers of the day touched on the importance of the local market and knowing it inside and out.

Rosemary Koberlein, CEO of Long Companies, offered five keys for success in 2008:

• Know your market

• Know your community

• Your attitude is your friend (make your own destiny)

• Action (lethargy is your enemy)

• Give (common courtesies to clients and fellow Realtors)

"If we are the experts in this market we better know everything in and out," Koberlein said.

So what were panelists’ predictions for 2008?

Laura Mance, senior vice president and regional manager for Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, sees this as a stabilizing year with growth returning in 2009.

Judy Lowe, of Realty Executives Southern Arizona and past president of the Tucson Association of Realtors, sees the market as stabilized.

"Our inventory continues to drop each month and contracts are rising," she said. She sees the market appreciating 3 percent to 4 percent this year.

Koberlein said the market is what it is. "This is your business. If you wait for us to tell you the market is back, you will have missed four months of good business." She expects the market to tick up toward the second half of 2008.

Sloyan says the market is still stabilizing and will tick up by the end of 2008.

Kimberly Clifton, owner and designated broker of Tierra Antigua Realty, sees 2008 as a year of opportunity for Realtors to get more education to become experts to succeed. She believes 2008 will be good with larger gains toward the end of the year.

Foreclosures still up for

2007, but headed down

December foreclosures in Pima County fell to the lowest they have been since April 2007.

There were 224 foreclosures during the month, down 22 percent from the 289 recorded in November. The last time foreclosures were any lower was in April when there were 189.

Default Research, which tracks foreclosure data, reported foreclosures for Pima and Maricopa counties were up 88 percent in 2007. The lion’s share of that was due to a 109 percent increase in Maricopa, where 22,632 foreclosures were recorded for the year, up from 10,834 in 2006. In Pima County, the total number of foreclosures for 2007 was 3,310, up 18 percent from the 2,805 recorded in 2006.

The rate of foreclosures in Maricopa County was nearly double Pima County’s – one in 65 households there versus one in 123 here.

Serdar Bankaci, president and CEO of Default Research, said he expects the number of foreclosures in Pima and Maricopa counties to hit their peaks in the next six to eight months, after which the housing market will begin to improve.

The data indicate Pima County may be able to rebound quicker than Maricopa County.

Southside apartments

sell for $5.85 million

The 144-unit South Point Apartments, 1120 E. Irvington Road, sold for $5.85 million, or $40,625 per unit.

Built in 1984, South Point Apartments consists of 75,784 of rentable square-footage, on a 4.26-acre site. The unit mix consists of 28 studio/one-baths, 100 one-bed/one-baths, 10 two-bed/one-baths and six two-bed/two-baths, with units ranging in size from 384-875-square feet. Community amenities include a swimming pool, spa, laundry facility, exercise room and barbeque areas.

Mike McClain of Marcus & Millichap’s Tucson office represented the seller, South Point Apartments LLC, Scottsdale, and the buyer, Chavanne South Point LP, Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif.

Wadlund negotiates $35.9M

sale of Georgia apartments

Art Wadlund, of Hendricks & Partners, negotiated an $35.9 million apartment deal in Duluth, Ga.

It was a five-year-old, 344-unit complex that was sold by the Lincoln National Life Insurance Company, Fort Wayne, Ind. to Benjamin Sherman and Sons, Chicago.

Worth noting

• Black Weapons Armory LLC

Shannon Murphy and Nancy McClure of CB Richard Ellis represented the landlord, H.I.F. Properties Inc.