One airline announces it’s trimming 3 percent of its schedule, another puts it at 4 percent, yet another says its eliminating 5 percent of capacity and then, suddenly, a whole airline shuts down. Add it all up, as in the case of Tucson International Airport, and the number of available seats going out of the airport will be down 17.5 percent come November, compared to March.

And that’s as things now stand. It seems as if not a week goes by without an airline or two making some sort of announcement.

July was especially tough on Tucson International when ExpressJet announced the experiment it started in April 2007 connecting medium-sized cities can no longer survive at current record oil prices. The airline will cease all operations as ExpressJet as of Sept. 2 and return to solely operating regional jets for Continental Airlines.

"It’s a huge blow for us, just as it was a huge opportunity for us when it started," says Bonnie Allin, president and CEO of the Tucson Airport Authority. "But to put our situation in perspective, before the ExpressJet announcement we were far better off than most other cities, especially tourism destinations that seem to be getting hit the hardest. You have to remember we’ve seen some remarkable growth. We’re up 27 percent in the last three years so even with the ExpressJet cuts we’re still ahead of where we were in 2004."

Allin says the airport authority is keeping close tabs on airline announcements but, she says, it’s important for Tucsonans to know that as things now stand there will still be more than 7,350 seats on an average day available to 17 non-stop destinations.

While some have focused on the 41 percent reduction in non-stop destinations, Allin says nine of those 13 destinations were on ExpressJet’s smaller 50-passenger regional jets. Having ExpressJet here was important but she says all of the destinations being eliminated are still reachable by way of one connection. And that, she argues, still beats a two-hour drive to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and more expensive parking there.

As for the cutbacks’ impact on Tucson’s airport, Allin says "we’ll take a breather" from construction. She said a proposal to expand the "A" concourse will be put on the shelf.

The airport authority is preparing its budget for next fiscal year, which starts Oct. 1. Allin says they are still reviewing and adjusting projected revenue figures but she said the authority has managed to reduce its dependency on direct revenue from the airlines. In its 2007 fiscal year, Allen said airlines contributed 27 percent of the revenue going to the airport. That compares to a national 2006 average of 32 percent.

She acknowledges, however, fewer passengers will also impact revenues from other sources, such as concessions.

In any event, Allin says passengers going through the terminal are not likely to see reduced services as a result of the airlines cutbacks.

"We’re fortunate that we just finished the terminal renovation project and have completed our runway overlay project," she said.

ExpressJet was working

Ironically, ExpressJet’s announced shutdown came just days before it released statistics showing its flights were catching on with the flying public. It reported filling an average of 79.2 percent of its seats in June.

At that rate with the average fares it was getting, ExpressJet’s business model had the airline showing a profit, according to Kristy Nicholas, director of corporate communications. But that model had oil prices going no higher than $78 per barrel. When prices got above $130 per barrel it became untenable. The Catch 22 is that the regional jets that made ExpressJet work where larger planes couldn’t also made it more difficult to spread out increased costs over more seats.

Consumers will continue to fill up their cars despite higher prices at the pump because they still need to get to work, Nicholas said, but she said an airline ticket is more of a discretionary item that people will simply stop buying.

ExpressJet’s business model was put together in the days of oil priced at about $40 a barrel. Nicholas said that if oil prices had still been in the range of $80 per barrel, ExpressJet probably would continue to fly.

Instead, now, the planes being used for ExpressJet will be returned to Continental Airlines, which owns them. Some will be swapped out for older models in the Continental system but most will be parked in a desert somewhere.

"At oil prices where they are today it’s more expensive to turn on an airplane and fly it than it is to just park it somewhere and continue paying for it," she said.

As ExpressJet winds down its operations it has announced it will discount fares the final week before discontinuing flights. From Aug. 13 through Aug. 22, flights from Tucson to Austin, Omaha and Reno are $89 each way. Then from Aug. 25 through Sept. 1 the fare to Kansas City, Sacramento and San Antonio will be $89 each way and Ontario will be priced at $79 each way. The fares are available online at www.expressjet.com.

On the plus side

• Sun Country Airlines still has Tucson in its plans for seasonal flights three days a week to Minneapolis-St. Paul. The privately-owned airline offered the service for the first time last winter and says it intends to return with flights on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays from Dec. 17 through April 15. Sun Country uses 162-passenger Boeing 737-800s configured with both first class and coach seats.

• US Airways has decided to make another adjustment to the schedule of its recently started non-stop flights from Tucson to Charlotte, N.C. As previously announced the overnight red-eye will move to an 8:25 a.m. departure as of Aug. 19 but now the airline has decided that from Sept. 3 through Nov. 1 it will switch to an afternoon flight scheduled to depart Tucson at 2:05 p.m. and arrive in Charlotte at 8:39 p.m. Come Nov. 3, the plan is to return to a morning departure from Tucson. From Sept. 3 through Nov. 1, the return flight is scheduled to leave Charlotte at 11:40 a.m., arriving here at 1:03 p.m. Otherwise it’s scheduled as an evening flight departing Charlotte just after 8 p.m. and arriving Tucson at 9:25 p.m. local time. US Airways is using 126-passenger Airbus A319s on the route configured with both first class and coach seats.

Tucson up, Phoenix down

Through June, more than 2.3 million passengers have gone through the terminal at Tucson International Airport; that’s up 2 percent over 2007.

In Phoenix through May, passenger traffic at Sky Harbor totaled 17.5 million, down 1.7 percent from the first five months of 2007.

Contact David Hatfield by e-mail at dhatfield@azbiz.com or call (520) 295-4237. Inside Business Travel appears the fourth week of each month.