Cheer up, the holidays are here


Published on Friday, January 09, 2009

Cheer up. It’s Christmas week. It’s also the start of Hanukkah.

Economists these days aren’t known for bringing us happy thoughts but this month Gerald Swanson — usually introduced by his colleague Marshall Vest as “everyone’s favorite professor” — did offer some advice: think positively.

As they do each December, University of Arizona economists Vest and Swanson delivered their annual economic outlook. This year about 550 people showed up Dec. 12 to the luncheon at the Westin La Paloma Resort and Spa. As Paul Portney, dean of the Eller College of Management, noted in his introduction, those in attendance at least appeared to be happy and none the worse for wear.

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It may be of little consquence now that the recession we’re in arrived in Tucson earlier than most other places in this country, according to Vest. The bigger question is when will we hit bottom? And when we do, will the economy quickly bounce back up again? Or will we stay at the bottom for some months?

There may have been 11 recessions since the end of World War II but none like this one, according to Swanson. Usually when one industrialized nation’s economy takes a hit, another sees a bounce. When the Asian economies falter, for instance, Europe rebounds. This time, though, it’s a global recession.

And those points are just part of the bigger picture. So, for those who weren’t among the 550 at the luncheon, you’re probably wondering just what positive thoughts one could take away from Swanson.

He had five:

1. It could be worse. 

For as bad as things might be, Tucson is faring better than some other areas — namely Phoenix and parts of California.

2. Things aren’t so expensive.

We used to complain how expensive things were, now it’s normal to see 50 percent discounts.

3. Great time to buy a car.

Dealers have big inventories of unsold new cars with incentives that have never before been offered.

4. Foreign travel is cheaper.

Although the value of the dollar has taken a hit recently, it is up against most foreign currencies from what it was earlier this year. Besides, with fewer people traveling, airlines, restaurants and places to stay are offering discounts to entice people to travel.

5. Home prices.

These days, if you’re shopping for a home and see something you like, make an offer.

The holiday spirit is about emotion. It’s about what’s in a person’s mind and heart. It’s about believing.

It’s about confidence and thinking positive. 
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