According to Multiple Listing Service data, home values, by average price per square foot, across the city are down nearly 16 percent from last year to $118.52 per square foot. Home values in the university area are down 10 percent to $167.50 per square foot.
The percentage declines may not appear to be that much different, but over the last two years Tucson home values are down 27 percent per square foot and the university area is down less than 17 percent.
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Kent Simpson, a Realtor with Avalar Advantage Realty, says he discovered the trend while running some comparables for a client looking to buy in the West University neighborhood.
“I’m a numbers guy, so once I saw this for one neighborhood, I had to try another,” Simpson said. “Talking to other brokers around the country many are noticing the same thing happening with their university neighborhoods.”
Of the 13 university-area neighborhoods, five have had values increase this year over last year with Rincon Heights leading the way posting a 19-percent increase in value year over year.
According to Simpsons numbers, 11 of the 13 neighborhoods are positive over the last five years.
“I think it is partly because people are more attached to these kinds of neighborhoods psychologically,” Simpson said, though admitting it was his best guess. “In these neighborhoods, you can walk to the grocery store or to dining. You might even be able to work right in these neighborhoods. In other outlaying areas, you have to leave your neighborhood to get to these things and aren’t as attached to the neighborhood in the same way.”
Susie Deconcini, a Realtor with Long Realty, has worked the UA area for more than 30 years and agrees with Simpson’s guess.
“People move here from areas of the country that are very old, established and stable environments,” Deconcini said. “They get to Tucson and see that so much of it is new. There is no substance, no roots, and no history. But this area has that and people are drawn to it. Sometimes when I am searching the northeast or the east areas of town, people will ask for specific areas, but usually they are looking for features. In the university area, people circumvent the features to have the neighborhood. Features are secondary.”
She also said the buyer profile tends to be different for that area than others.
“Most of my buyers have some money,” she said. “They’re not scrambling for the down payment, it is already there. They typically don’t utilize program packages for home buyers such as FHA, or VA. They will put 10-20 percent down on the purchase.”
The main problem she said the neighborhoods are having is with the appraisals.
“Appraisers can walk into a subdivision home blindfolded and can just about do an appraisal,” she said. “In these neighborhoods, you may have one other house that is similar to yours, but that’s it. They are more of subjective than technical appraisals.”
She said the values didn’t fluctuate up as much as the rest of Tucson is, so they aren’t trending down as much as the rest of town is.
In regard to Rincon Heights, she said the university is buying up property as it expands into that neighborhood South of Sixth Street and west of Campbell Avenue.
“There is always going to be buyer demand in Rincon Heights because of that,” she said. “So that isn’t as much of an accurate temperature of the region. Barrio Anita has had a bigger downward slide, but that is a fairly new barrio going into the gentrification transition. It’s slipped right now, but it will come back. That area is a really neat place to be.”
| University Neighborhoods | |||||
| Neighborhood | 2009 value* | 2008 value* | change | 2004-2009 | 1999-2009 |
| Rincon Heights | 202.77 | 170.31 | 19.10% | 21.6 | 128 |
| Feldmans | 193.71 | 182.82 | 6.00% | 35.3 | 127.3 |
| Pie Allen/Iron Horse | 191.07 | 182.24 | 4.80% | 8 | 121.8 |
| Blenman Elm | 193.95 | 191.74 | 1.20% | 19.2 | 97.3 |
| West University | 183.15 | 181.16 | 1.10% | 11.3 | 95 |
| Sam Hughes | 204.02 | 205.43 | -0.70% | 19.1 | 95 |
| North University | 174.67 | 179.26 | -2.60% | 9.6 | 105.5 |
| Armory Park | 163.64 | 174.55 | -6.30% | 2.3 | 69.6 |
| Barrio Viejo | 184.21 | 198.77 | -7.30% | 10.3 | 80.6 |
| Catalina Vista | 178.97 | 193.41 | -7.50% | 11.7 | 92.9 |
| University area homes | 167.5 | 186.78 | -10.30% | 4.1 | 74.6 |
| Tucson homes | 118.52 | 140.93 | -15.90% | -3.8 | 36.3 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 8,359.49 | 11,055.19 | -24.40% | -17.5 | -19.1 |
| Dunbar Springs | 137.21 | 188.16 | -27.10% | 0.07 | 86.7 |
| Barrio Anita | 130.51 | 183.51 | -28.90% | -1.3 | 65.8 |
| Jefferson Park | 132.02 | 192.38 | -31.40% | -4.4 | 60 |
| Dow Jones as of July 14 except 1999 where July 1 was used. | |||||
| Source: Tucson Multiple Listing Service | |||||
Contact reporter Joe Pangburn at jpangburn@azbiz.com or (520) 295-4259.
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