Have you noticed the vehicles with bumper stickers imploring people to vote for “change.” They seem to be on cars that support Democratic causes because there’s liable to be an Obama sticker on there, too. Maybe even a leftover Kerry-Edwards sticker (That’s an embarrassment.)
The Democrats who are still sporting these “change” stickers might not be helping their cause so much. If you’re paying attention to this year’s Tucson city elections, that sentiment is exactly what the Republicans are promoting for the City Council seats up for election.
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Who’s got crime stats?Don’t you find it odd that neither side on Proposition 200, the city’s Public Safety First Initiative, is using crime statistics to support their arguments? You’d think the FBI’s annual Uniform Crime Report could be a source for such statistics but look up Tucson in the latest report and you’ll find the stats are asterisked with this notation: “The FBI determined that the agency did not follow national Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program guidelines for reporting an offense. Consequently, this figure is not included in this table.”
Tucson changed the way it reports a crime a few years back. So it turns out one impartial report that might be valid, doesn’t include Tucson. The report can’t be used to compare Tucson’s current crime statistics to the past or against other jurisdictions.
Losing either way There will be a price to pay regardless of the outcome of Proposition 200.
If it is approved by voters, city officials will pursue their threats for raising taxes.
If Proposition 200 fails, it will give those same city officials the ammunition they need to put police and fire at the bottom of their priority list for years to come.
What a sad predicament.
What $16B buysOn a non-election subject, timing can take the edge off a good report. Take the feds’ Oct. 15 report showing that 30,380 jobs nationwide can be directly tied to their stimulus programs, including at least 650 jobs in Arizona. The number for Tucson and Southern Arizona is nebulous.
That same day, the Arizona Department of Commerce released the state’s unemployment statistics for September. There were 293,400 people in the Arizona workforce who were without jobs last month, including 40,900 in Tucson. That 650 doesn’t seem so good stacked up next to that.
Statistically, Arizona’s 9.3 percent unemployment rate wouldn’t change one bit if those 650 stimulus jobs never existed. But what’s $16 billion these days?
Contact David Hatfield at dhatfield@azbiz.com or (520) 295-4237.
Comments
bob wrote on Oct 28, 2009 7:11 PM:
Vallejo was pushed over the brink as the economy tanked and the downturn in the housing market produced a large drop in city revenues. At the same time Vallejo’s public safety expenses grew to 75% of the general fund and were largely locked in via collective bargaining agreements. There simply was not enough revenue to cover the mandated obligations.
“But the largest share of the blame in Vallejo has centered on public-safety salaries and benefits, which make up about 75 percent of the city's general fund budget. (Governing.com article)“
For Vallejo, the tipping point was 75% of general fund revenues obligated to public safety. Where is Tucson and what will be Tucson’s tipping point? (Please note that in no way do I expect Tucson to be the next Vallejo.)
Public safety now represents 65% of Tucson’s general fund (police, fire, courts, public defender, City Attorney). If Proposition 200 were to pass, most of these costs would be mandated and grow over the next few years. In addition to public safety, are there any other expenses that the City is required to make each year? – Oh yes there are; quite a few!
Let’s have some ‘fun’ now and dive into the detail of the various financial reports from the city (make sure you have some extra strength Tylenol because these will definitely give you a migraine). What you find is that over 90% of general fund revenue would be mandated, pledged, or contractually obligated if Prop 200 passes. And this is before you fill a pothole, turn on the lights at City Hall, or mow the grass at Udall Park. …If 90% of your revenue is already spoken for this leaves very little money for other services…I think this is a problem...
Here are some other contractual obligations you find in the financial reports:
$400 million of outstanding General Obligation bonds and Certificates of Participation for Governmental Activities. Bond holders are kinda funny in that they expect the City to make annual debt service payments on time. (pg 53, ‘08 CAFR)
$28 million/year of annual lease obligations. (pg 55, ’08 CAFR)
$600+ million of underfunded pension and retirement obligations. The City has made promises to employees but has not set aside sufficient money to pay for these. The $600 million has to be paid off over time as these are contractual obligations to employees. (pg 63, ’08 CAFR)
$40+ million Structurally Imbalanced Budget. The City is running a deficit but has balanced its budget through spending their Rainy Day Fund, borrowing more money, and other one-time windfalls. The City Charter requires a balanced budget. (Budget Revenue Presentation 9/15/09) "
Robert Rowley wrote on Oct 23, 2009 11:16 PM: